The Republican Civil War

The Republican civil war is a battle between the establishment wing of the party, whose goal is to win elections and attain power, and the Tea Party wing, whose goal is to return government to a lawful, limited, fiscally sound state.  The establishment is right when they say you can't govern if you don't win, and the Tea Party is right when they say government size and spending are out of control.

The source of friction is that we now live in a country where everyone has been bought off by the government.  There are no longer any limits on what government can spend or do.  All of us has some claim on our neighbors' money through Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, State pensions, corporate welfare, academic grants, subsidies, government contracts, etc, etc, etc, thousands upon thousands of interleaving and overlapping government give aways.  As the government budget gets bigger and more people become dependent on their government check, it becomes harder to sell the idea of limited government. 

The Republican establishment sees the Democrats giving away trillions of dollars and they know they can not win elections by telling all the aggrieved victims and entitled groups that they won't be getting their government check.  They desperately want to get into the give away game so they can compete and win.  They would stand on principle if they thought they could win, but you can't govern if you don't win, so principles come second.  They mock the Tea Party for failing to understand this simple political reality and for a seeming willingness to lose for the sake of principle.

The Tea Party consists of people who have watched this happen for a couple decades now and have finally decided that they will no longer give their unconditional support to a party unwilling to fight for their principles.  They don't see the difference between a Republican pandering to victim groups and giving away trillions versus a Democrat pandering to victim groups and giving away trillions, so why fight for the Republican?

The establishment knows they have to pander to special interests and give away money to win elections and the Tea Party knows that has to stop to get the country back on track. Both sides are right, and both sides will lose because they can not co-exist in the same party.  The Republicans can not win without the Tea Party and there are not enough Tea Party minded people to form a winning coalition without the Republican infra-structure.

The deciding factor in this war is that the Tea Party can put an end to the Republican Party in one election cycle.  It won't happen in this next mid-term cycle because the Tea Party are a very patient bunch and are willing to put up with a lot of abuse from the establishment as long as there's hope things might change for the better.  But the presidential primary for 2016 will decide whether or not the Republican Party survives.  If the establishment forces another moderate on the Tea Party, then the Tea Party will leave in huge numbers and the Republican party will be left competing with Democrats in the give-away game, a game they can't win.

As long as there are no limits on governments giving away goodies and buying votes with our children's money, the civil war in the Republican Party will rage on until it finally implodes, leaving nothing but European style socialists in charge.

That's how my un-credentialled eyes see it.